From Bubble to Bust - Are You Prepared for the Next Downturn?

From Bubble to Bust - Are You Prepared for the Next Downturn?


October 2016

What would you do differently if you knew a downturn was coming? Traditionally, occupiers of real estate have been at the whim of real estate market conditions riding the wave from bubbles through busts. They do well when they happen to sign a new lease in a downturn. But they do poorly when trying to dispose of assets or downsize in these same conditions. This challenge is particularly acute in major urban markets like New York or San Francisco where rents and property values can fluctuate by more than 50%. For occupiers, market cycles create a material risk and there are few tools available to help them manage it. As CRE matures and the industry transitions from limited to "big" data, CRE professionals now have the opportunity to use data science and predictive models to help guide their decisions. Partnering with the World Economic Forum, a team of researchers embarked on a project with a very ambitious goal, to create an early warning system for real estate downturns. The results of this effort appear promising. A prototype was created that appears to predict downturns in major US metros. If this indicator proves effective, similar techniques could be used to improve performance throughout the real estate industry, and that's the good news. The bad news is the forecast says that many major US markets are poised for a downturn in the next 12-18 months. The theory behind this system, how bubbles and busts affect key players throughout the real estate ecosystem, and specific strategies that occupiers can use to prepare for the forecasted downturn will be covered during this session.

Keywords: CoreNet Global, Summit, North America, Philly2016, downturn, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

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